There are moments in the real estate market that separate those who wait from those who win. Right now, we are entering one of those moments.

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield recently dropped to approximately 4.10%, and while most people don’t watch Treasury yields, this number has a direct and powerful impact on mortgage rates. In simple terms, when Treasury yields fall, mortgage rates typically follow. That’s exactly what is happening now.

This shift could open the door for thousands of buyers who were previously priced out of the market — and it creates a strategic window of opportunity for sellers who understand what’s coming next.

Why Mortgage Rates Are Dropping

Mortgage rates are driven primarily by investor confidence and inflation expectations. When inflation shows signs of cooling, investors move into bonds like the 10-Year Treasury. This increased demand pushes yields down — and mortgage rates follow.

Lower mortgage rates reduce the monthly cost of buying a home. Even a small drop in rates can make a meaningful difference.

For example:

• A $400,000 loan at 7.25% = approximately $2,730/month

• The same loan at 6.25% = approximately $2,463/month

That’s a savings of about $267 per month — or over $3,200 per year.

This difference allows many buyers to qualify who previously could not.

What This Means for Buyers

When mortgage rates fall, buying power increases. Buyers can afford more home for the same monthly payment, or they can reduce their monthly expenses while purchasing the same home.

Historically, when rates drop, buyer demand increases quickly. Many buyers who paused their search re-enter the market at the same time. This often leads to increased competition and fewer available homes.

For buyers, timing matters. Entering the market before demand fully accelerates can provide more options, less competition, and better negotiating power.

What This Means for Sellers

Many homeowners have been waiting for the right moment to sell. Rising rates slowed demand in recent years, but falling rates change the equation quickly.

As rates decline:

• More buyers enter the market

• Showings increase

• Offers become more competitive

• Homes sell faster

• Sellers gain stronger negotiating leverage

The early phase of falling rates is often the most advantageous time to sell — before increased inventory enters the market.

What This Means for the Fredericksburg Area

Fredericksburg and the surrounding communities remain highly desirable due to their location, quality of life, and proximity to major employment centers. Lower mortgage rates make this area even more accessible to buyers relocating from Northern Virginia and beyond.

As affordability improves, we expect to see increased activity across Fredericksburg, Stafford, Spotsylvania, King George, and Westmoreland County.

This shift may already be underway.

The Opportunity Most People Miss

Real estate markets move in cycles, and the biggest advantages often belong to those who act early — before headlines catch up with reality.

By the time everyone realizes rates have dropped, competition has already increased.

Understanding market signals like Treasury yields and inflation trends allows buyers and sellers to make informed decisions rather than reactive ones.

A Message from Alexander Wilson

My role is not simply to help clients buy or sell homes. My role is to help them understand timing, opportunity, and strategy.

Whether you are considering buying, selling, or simply want to understand your options, having accurate information is the first step.

If you would like to know:

• What your home is worth in today’s changing market

• How falling rates affect your buying power

• Or whether now is the right time for you

I am here to help.

Alexander Wilson
Go Wilson Properties
Fredericksburg, Virginia

Because timing isn’t luck. It’s strategy.